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GBPUSD Exchange Rate – HowVolatility Affects the GBP/USDExchange Rate

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GBPUSD exchange rate has been on the move lately. As a result of UK departure
from the European Union (EU) bloc, the value of the British currency has decreased.
This makes the exchange rate highly volatile. It is important to understand the
factors that influence the value of the British currency. These factors include the
growth of economic growth, the UK’s departure from the EU, and the volatility of the
currency pair.

Economic growth

Historically, the GBP/USD has been a fairly strong performer. The recent spike is
attributed to the ebbing of a global trade deficit and the US’s interest rate spike.
However, the most impressive gains have come from the UK, where GDP grew by a
healthy 4.5% in the first quarter of the year.
Fortunately, the UK is set to exit the European Union (EU) in late 2019 and with the
economy on a solid footing, the Pound is set for a long and prosperous post-Brexit
run. The UK is also set to see an influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows,
most notably China and India. The currency is expected to see a resurgence as more
investors seek the UK’s low tax regime, cheap labour and high quality brew.
The best way to gauge the health of the UK economy is to look at the
aforementioned GDP numbers. While these figures are still modest, a robust data set
of the country’s financial institutions will allow analysts to measure a more granular
picture. While the UK has a long way to go before it can be considered a world
power, the economy is on the right track.
In fact, the UK has recently been awarded the top spot in the coveted World
Economic Forum’s Global Innovation Index, a testament to the UK’s strong economic
fundamentals. While the UK economy hasn’t slowed down in the face of Brexit, a
slew of economic challenges loom on the horizon. Despite this, economists predict
that GDP will grow by a healthy 3.5% in the first quarter of the year, as opposed to
the 4.5% reported in the previous quarter.
The best way to evaluate the long term health of the UK economy is to look at GDP
growth over the long term. For instance, a recent report from the Office of National
Statistics (ONS) found that the UK economy is set to grow by an average of 3% per
year for the next five years. However, this figure may be a little conservative.

UK departure from EU bloc

During the referendum in June 2016, the British people voted to leave the European
Union. This resulted in a series of headlines predicting the devastating impact of the
decision on the British economy. However, the impact of the decision has been
muted. In fact, UK consumers have been supportive of UK economic growth since
the referendum.
One of the reasons the impact of the vote on the UK economy was muted is that the
issue was not primarily economic. Instead, the issue was immigration. In fact, the
majority of British voters were concerned with Germany lecturing on immigration
policy rather than the economic implications of leaving the EU.
The UK will still be a member of the European Union for the duration of the transition
period. This period will begin on the day the UK leaves the EU and end on 31
December 2020. This period will allow the UK to adapt to the process. The transition
will also allow businesses and administrations to prepare for the change.
The United Kingdom’s paid-in capital in the European Investment Bank (EIB) will be
replaced by a callable guarantee. It will be repaid in twelve annual instalments.
The United Kingdom will also continue to guarantee loans made by the EU before its
withdrawal. However, it will also receive back a portion of unused guarantees.
There will also be a transition period of up to two years. This period will help the UK
adapt to the process and will allow it to negotiate its own trade deals. However, it
will not participate in EU institutions and agencies during this time.
The EU and UK have been engaged in a series of intensive negotiations. They have
held regular meetings with each other. They have also published all documents
relevant to the negotiations. The European Commission has even sought input from
stakeholders and EU consultative bodies.
The British government has also produced a 90-page report on the economic effects
of leaving. The report predicted a sharp rise in unemployment. However, it also
predicted a recession.

Volatility of the currency pair

Whether you’re new to Forex or simply a seasoned pro, knowing the volatility of a
currency pair can help you manage your risk. You can calculate the volatility of any
currency by calculating the standard deviation. Standard deviation measures how far
a set of numbers is from the average.
The volatility of the currency pair is determined by a number of factors. Some of
these factors include the number of buyers and sellers, open market transactions,
and global economic news. If you want to trade Forex, you need to stay up-to-date
with the latest news on global economics.
The most common currencies that traders trade are the majors, such as the US
dollar and the Euro. These currencies are less volatile than the exotic currencies.
Traders need to keep in mind that exotic currencies are also volatile. The Turkish
lira, for example, has been volatile since 2016.
The most important examples of volatile currency pairs are the USD/JPY, the
AUD/JPY, the NZD/JPY, and the EUR/USD. These currencies are also the most traded
pairs. However, other pairs, such as the GBPJPY, can have extreme volatility
numbers.
The USD/ZAR currency pair is another high-volatility pair. Its volatility depends on
the national economy, political news in Turkey, and global export news.
The USD/TRY currency pair also carries high volatility risk. It depends on global
export news, the Turkish lira, and technical analysis.
The Japanese Yen is considered a safe haven currency in times of economic
instability. However, the lira has been extremely volatile since the election loss of
Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The currency pair is expected to remain volatile until political
settlements are made.
If you’re new to trading Forex, you might want to stick to trading one or two of the
more volatile currency pairs with low spreads. Then, you can build up your leverage
so that you can magnify small price changes.
For example, if you buy a call option on the USD/CHF currency pair, you can use a
currency volatility index to price the options. The volatility index will take into
account the market volatility of the currency pair to determine the price of the
options.

Forecast

Whether you are a trader, investor or just curious, the GBP/USD forecast provides an
overview of medium and long-term price expectations. This can help you make
better currency investment decisions.
The GBP/USD forecast focuses on the currency pair’s relationship with interest rates
and commodity prices. A wide range of methods are used to forecast the pair’s rate.
The methodology page offers more information about how the forecast is made.
The GBP/USD forecast uses prior values of the pair, as well as economic indicators
and commodity prices. In addition, it incorporates the opinions of 38 analysts in the
GBP/USD Forecast Poll. This poll highlights divergences in opinion, and provides
actionable price targets.
The Pound has rebounded from losses late in September. But a looming recession
has continued to weigh on the currency. In addition, industrial action has increased.
These factors could slow gains in the near term.
The BoE’s latest projections showed the recession could be deeper than previously
thought. As a result, the market scaled back its interest rate increase bets. This
helped the ‘Greenback’ recover.
The Pound/Dollar exchange rate has gained 6.21 percent over the past four weeks.
It is trading at a three-month high of $1.2019. The risk-off market mood has helped
the currency to recover. However, the forthcoming economic data could highlight the
diverging prospects of the UK and US economies.
The Pound’s rebound may be partly due to disruptions in the UK pension plans,
which have led to temporary repatriation to the country. It is also possible that the
forthcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change could spur the currency.
In the next week, the Pound will be sensitive to a number of important economic
data releases. It is possible that the rate will continue to rise. In addition, the
Renminbi trajectory could affect the exchange rate in the short term. However, a
setback could lead to the pair to fall again.
If you’re a trader, investor or just curious about the currency, you may want to
consider the latest trends and technical analysis. The forecast can help you
determine the best time to buy or sell the USD.


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