Is UBS’ Call For S&P500 Profit Growth of 31% For 2021 Now Too Conservative?
Clearly, earnings forecasts have been underclubbed, with the PE ratio reaching minus 20 per cent. UBS’ own call for S&P500 profit growth of 31% for 2021 may now be too conservative.
PE ratio has now reached minus 20 per cent
Despite a sharp fall in stock prices, the S&P500 PE ratio has reached minus twenty
percent. The ratio is calculated by dividing the current price of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index by the most recent annual earnings of the companies in the index.
The P/E ratio is an important tool used to evaluate the valuation of stocks.
Companies that are growing in terms of earnings tend to have a higher P/E ratio than
companies that are stagnant. However, it is important to remember that P/E ratios are not always correct. The P/E ratio can be manipulated by leverage and debt. Depending on the company, the P/E ratio can vary greatly.
There are three main variations of the P/E ratio. The first is the P/E 10, which is an average of earnings over a decade. The second is the P/E 30, which averages earnings over the past thirty years. The third variation is the forward P/E, which estimates earnings over the next two quarters.
The P/E ratio is also helpful in determining whether a stock is overvalued or
undervalued. A low P/E ratio means the company is undervalued. However, this ratio is less useful when comparing different companies in the same industry. This is
because the amount of debt or leverage that a company has will affect their earnings. It is also important to remember that two similar companies can have different levels of debt.
The P/E ratio is also very sensitive to business cycles. It is important to note that
companies in certain industries, such as energy, have a higher P/E ratio than other industries. This may be an indication of sector trends.
Another useful tool is the price-to-book ratio. This is a ratio that compares the
current price of a company’s shares to its book value. If the price of a company is
greater than its book value, then the stock is overvalued. The higher the company’s
dividend income, the better.
In the past, the S&P500 PE ratio remained in the range of twenty to twenty-five.
However, the stock market crashed in mid-2008 and earnings fell. The P/E ratio fell further, though, indicating the market failed to adjust to the decrease in earnings
Earnings forecasts have clearly been underclubbed
Whether you’re a financial geek or a retail investor, you’ll know that the consensus
earnings estimate is the holy grail of all forecasts. For good reason – companies that
exceed their forecasts typically see a lift in share price. The best part is that these
forecasts are typically made public well in advance of the close of each quarter.
There are several different types of consensus estimates. For example, there are
those that are made on a quarterly basis, and those that are made after the close of
each quarter. This information can be found on any number of financial websites,
such as Benzinga, Bloomberg, and Yahoo! Finance. Likewise, you can go in for a
more hands-on approach by consulting a spreadsheet of individual company
estimates. For instance, you can easily find a single digit estimate for a company
that has been in business for 20 years. In fact, you can go even further, and find
estimates for the next 12 months, or even longer.
The consensus estimate is most likely a product of a combination of factors, such as
a company’s current quarter earnings and the overall outlook for the upcoming year.
The most comprehensive estimates will take into account factors such as business
and industry trends, competitors, and macroeconomic conditions. In addition, you
can also look at estimates by industry sector, company size, and geographic region.
As you can see from the above, it’s not difficult to find the best forecasts for any
company, and you can get a good idea of which companies are most likely to exceed
their forecasts. For example, a look at the consensus estimates for IBM, General
Electric, and Microsoft suggests that these firms are faring better than their
competition. In addition, these firms are not only beating their forecasts, they are
The aforementioned one-year forecasts have been skewed towards tech and pharma
stocks, which are faring better than their counterparts in the industrial space. In
fact, pharma stock buybacks are two times as large as they were a year ago. The
biggest reason for this is that many companies have been repurchasing cash that
they had set aside during the pandemic.
UBS' own call of 31% profit growth for S&P500 firms for 2021 may now be 'too conservative'
Despite some jitters, the broad US market has rallied since the mid-June low. During the last 12 months, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 31.4%, and it has been positive for the following six months, too. However, some investment firms have begun to predict a 5-10% correction in the coming months.
For investors, a major issue is the extent to which growth trends are actually accelerating. A divergence is building between China and the rest of the world. Growth in Asia has been tepid relative to trend, while in Europe and the US growth has been under pressure. The related commodity price rebound is keeping hands wringing that peak inflation is still to come.
For companies, earnings growth is tracking below the 3-5% range. As a result, the magnitude of earnings beats is not as big as the 5-year average. Nonetheless, UBS’ own call for 31% profit growth for S&P500 firms for 2021 may be too conservative. The dollar is also a meaningful headwind for EPS growth. A front-loaded recovery leads to higher input costs. In addition, supply chain pressures are not easing to the extent that some investors expect. Similarly, rising labor costs are a threat.
Overall, profit margins are eroding to pre-pandemic levels. However, they have not yet reached their long-term average of 75%. The impact of restrictive monetary policies is not well reflected in consensus forecasts.
On the positive side, the global economy appears to be stronger than initially thought. The services sector is still running well and consumer demand is strong. Nonetheless, a structural headwind in many parts of the world is the lack of skilled labor. In addition, property sector issues will crimp growth in China in 2022.
The tech-led shakeout has reinforced the peak in output and investment flows, and may continue to drive profit growth. However, it is also reinforcing the fears and anxieties of investors. For example, the ISM service sector index fell from a 37-year high in March. And the ISM manufacturing index also declined.
It is also worth noting that the tech-heavy Nasdaq index has seen 12-month forward Price/Earnings ratios fall this year.
C.J. Lawrence CEO provides a mid-year update & outlook for 2020
During the first half of the year, C.J. Lawrence, the long snapper, stepped in to help the Dallas Cowboys’ defense after the team lost Jake McQuaide to a torn bicep. He then worked his way through a sore foot in the team’s Week 3 win over the New York Giants. In Week 5, the Cowboys defeated the Los Angeles Rams 22-10. Clark, who helped lead LSU to a national championship, is expected to join the Cowboys’ linebackers’ corps. He will add firepower to the defense and will also be asked to help special teams coordinator John “Bones” Fassel. He was a star linebacker at LSU and was named to the All-American first team in 2021. In the 2021 season, he finished with five sacks.
In addition to Clark, the Cowboys have a talented upstart in Jabril Cox. He will also play a part in the team’s special teams, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. The Cowboys also lost Jake McQuaide to a torn right bicep, but he is expected to return for the season.